What is the EU negotiating position?

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What is the EU negotiating position?
« on: December 11, 2016, 06:17:56 PM »
What is the EU negotiating position?
By johnredwood | Published: December 9, 2016
So many critics of Brexit in the UK have dominated the debate, that it has been mainly about the UK’s position. More interesting and more useful for us as a country is to explore what is and should be the EU’s position? How easy will it be for the 27 to agree one? How quickly will tensions emerge between the member states who need goodwill and trade with the UK, and some in the Commission who want to make a political point that no country should be allowed to leave?
The aim of the EU is pretty clear. In their make believe world they want to try to make the terms of exit difficult so the Uk suffers on exit. There is of course no way they can do that. All they can do is damage the member states who remain. Their problem is the UK gets such a poor deal out of the EU that leaving even without an agreement is much better than staying in. On leaving we save our big net contributions, we get back control of our own laws, and will be the winners from the modest tariffs on our exports against the much bigger tariffs on their sales to the Uk under WTO rules. We will be free to lower tariffs with the rest of the world, to buy cheaper food from emerging market countries helping them and us, and be free to regulate and promote business as we see fit.
The EU of course talks in a contradictory way about Brexit. It both argues it is better to stay in, and argues if we leave more might want to leave! So which is it EU? Is it so good in the EU that any other country would be mad to leave? Or is it so bad that once we have dug the escape tunnel others will want to use it? One of these propositions must be wrong, or possibly both. Their cruel and unpleasant rhetoric about punishment, like their many threats to us all the time we were in the EU, makes it less easy for them to strike a good deal for their member states.
The member states are altogether friendlier and more circumspect. No member state government has said it wishes to impose WTO levels of tariff on our exports to them, because they know it will be more damaging to their exporters. They not only sell us more in total than we sell them, but the rest of the EU sells much more of the agricultural goods and cars that can attract higher tariffs, whilst we sell many goods and services that remain tariff free under WTO rules. Most of them understand that their many exporters to the UK do not want the EU and their government getting in the way of an important trade.
Of course the EU would like us to make contributions into the budget, but no other country outside the EU and EEA does and there is no need to do so to trade with them. If they want us to contribute to export to them why not they pay to export to us? Of course they would like us to continue to generate lots of jobs for their unemployed workers. That is something we wish to limit. Of course they would rather we accepted all the same laws and rules as them. There is no need for us to do so for all the trade we do at home and with the rest of the world.
I want us to be friendly and generous in our offer for after exit. We should tell them we want to stay friends, to maximise our mutual trade, and carry on without tariffs and new barriers. They also need to know there is no way we can or should offer to let them control our migration policy, or to carry on placing levies on our budget. I suspect the member states will welcome our friendly and helpful approach, but if they don’t it will still be good news for us.
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Posted December 9, 2016 at 5:26 am | Permalink
I agree, There isn’t any need or desire to become unfriendly with any member state of the EU.In the minds of many there is a problem .If ideas and opinions chime with one another it is seen as ‘creeping’ and some will become quite competitive in trying to point this out.It doesn’t indicate in any way that by sharing an opinion ,it is cow towing or demonstrating a position of vulnerability. The position to agree does not have a subtext which only the enlightened can see. It is far more simple than this.It goes something like this: Yes we want to trade with you and would welcome your business.
Posted December 9, 2016 at 11:07 am | Permalink
JR, what has come out of the Supreme Court hearing is how much EU directives and regulations have been applied, negating all the false claims by the Clarke and Clegg types. It should be seized upon while we are still in no mans land leaving the EU with May.
Posted December 9, 2016 at 5:37 am | Permalink
“What is the EU negotiating position?”
They do not have one. They do not need one.
To state the obvious, we are a member of the EU.
Nothing has changed.
It is like asking what is the position of the company which employs you on your resignation. Six months ago you hinted you would leave. But no resignation. You hint you will leave in four months time. But no resignation. Your boss can see that you have all kinds of personal legal problems which remain unresolved. Any one of them could mean you will delay any resignation still further…possibly cancel the whole idea as your family is getting uppity.
What would I do if I were the EU? Nothing at all. If you do come to me at some vague time in the future with your resignation I would listen patiently to your requests after you had built up massive expectations ( over time ) of your quarrelsome family ( with your batty lawyer stabbing you in the back ) ,. I would drag out negotiations as long as possible until you had an option to extend negotiations or just leave….knowing your quarrelsome family and batty family lawyer would never allow you to just leave when the option for more time is available. Then I would make negotiations drag out even longer. For I know in so doing I cannot lose.
Answer: Get shut of the pompous batty lawyer. Do it directly after he next opens his stupid mouth cum January 2017. Then press on and stop loitering with no intent upon the EU.
Had article 50 been signed on 24th June 2016, the ball would have been in the court of the EU. Europe never was any good at defending itself from rapid attack. It was and actually is a very slow entity . The silly UK should have known that. I believe it did. Those in power in the Tory Party are dragging their feet in unison with the EU. They are allies of the EU. Plain as day.
You can read the rest of the comments here http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2016/12/09/what-is-the-eu-negotiating-position/

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